Confidence. Evidence. Know the Difference.

I have to remind myself that someone having an opinion about what I’m doing doesn’t mean they know what they’re talking about. Confidence is readily available. Evidence takes a little more work.

When the dot-com bubble burst, Amazon’s stock fell from $113 to $6. I would have needed a quiet room and someone to explain why breathing into a paper bag was no longer recommended.

Jeff Bezos kept looking at what was happening inside the business. More customers. Improving profit per unit. Fewer defects. The business was getting better while its stock price was suggesting everyone should clear out their desks.

That’s the part that interests me. I don’t have to love everything about the man to appreciate that he understood the difference between people’s assessment of his business and the evidence inside it.

I think about this in my own work. Is the plan producing results? Are things improving? Can I point to something beyond my enthusiasm and a nicely designed presentation?

Because “I believe in myself” is lovely. It is also something I have said before assembling furniture incorrectly.

Stay the course if the course shows you it’s right. Keep checking. Make adjustments when the evidence calls for them. But don’t hand the wheel to every person shouting from the sidewalk.